March 2009
DOUG MELVIN’S PANIC ATTACKS
As Brewers’ General Manager, I would grade Doug Melvin a B+. Now I’m sure that some will figure that this is way too high but being a MLB GM is quite a complex assignment in this day of high salaried free agents, risky long term contracts, arbitration and evaluating prospects.
It’s like putting together a new jigsaw puzzle every year, trying to fit all the right pieces together. It’s like plugging a hole using a sieve. It’s like trying to balance the national budget when spending a billion dollars a day.
Moves are made based on a number of criteria, the most important for a team in a market like Milwaukee is, of course, money. Without a salary cap, the revenue streams between top and bottom are as wide as the National Debt.
Many critical off-season decisions need to be made. It would be much easier if all the decisions could be made at once, then you would limit your costly contracts while still improving the team.
But this is the real world and risks need to sometimes be made. Limit your mistakes and you’ll be around a lot longer. Make boneheaded moves every year and you’re in the unemployment line trying to survive on meager benefits and living on a diet of Beenie Weenies.
The genesis for this particular topic stems from an idea that my daughter threw at me the other day. Why not, she asked, pick up Pedro Martinez? He pitched well enough in the WBC to prove he still has something in the tank. This future Hall of Famer said that he would be willing to play for any club so long as the salary begins at a million a year. Quite a bargain today.
The point she was trying to make was that while long in the tooth, Pedro would still be a better risk than the Brewers recent signing of Braden Looper for $5 million a year. This all makes economic sense.
The problem is Melvin’s recent moves have left him with no wriggle room. Last year when Francisco Cordero decided to go to Cincinnati, Melvin wasted $10 million on a washed up Eric Gagne. When Gagne couldn’t make it past May without imploding and being banished to the DL, everyone knew what a colossal mistake it was. Strike one?
This year, when Solomon Torres retired and there was no better alternative, he signed Trevor Hoffman who will, you guessed it, open the year on the disabled list.
The Brewers bullpen may be worse than their rotation, which is saying a lot. The substitute closer, Carlos Villanueva, was hardly giving the club any confidence with a horrendous spring. There’s an old Chinese proverb that says “Behind every man is another man”. Obviously not referring to the Brewers bullpen. Strike Two?
Then there was the questionable signing of the aforementioned Looper. True, he has been a durable pitcher albeit mainly mediocre since becoming a starter. This is the best he could do for $5 million? Already saddled with the ridiculous $12.5 million Jeff Suppan will be paid this year and stubbornly refusing to negotiate with Ben Sheets (maybe he knew about his aching elbow?), the Brewers go into the season with one of the more challenging rotations in the league. That’s two starters we’ve taken off the Cardinals’ hands. Will it be Kyle Lohse next year when he proves that last year was a fluke? Strike Three or Wild Pitch?
The crux of the matter is that even though Melvin can be calculating, his recent panic attacks have denied the club the opportunity to sign a pitcher like Martinez for even a year because the club has a history of not eating contracts (not even Derrick Turnbow’s.)
“….all men make mistakes, but a good man yields when he knows his
course is wrong, and repairs the evil. The only crime is pride.”
– Sophocles
Will someone mention this to Melvin?
WHAT HAVE I CREATED?
I turn this week’s blog over to my baseball-obsessed daughter who expresses her opinions so well, she may end up replacing me…which would be no big loss.
Here are her ruminations about her favorite team regarding the upcoming season –
Hi! Kenn’s baseball-loving daughter
here, taking a much-needed break from thesis writing and job searching
to write my latest entry. My previous blogs have revolved around my
#2 team, the Yankees. Time for team #1 to take the spotlight!
Despite the fresh snow, it supposedly
is early spring in Wisconsin, and for the first time in ages the talk
of the local sports world is about the upcoming Brewers season–NOT
which prospects the Packers should go after in next month’s draft. (A
refreshing change for this baseball-crazy gal living a football-obsessed
state!) After the first postseason trip in 26 years, the excitement
in Milwaukee is palpable. Fans have high expectations for this team,
and tickets are selling at an unbelievable pace. My question is, when
this team isn’t performing the way they expected them to, will they
still fill the seats? Will Brewers Fever still be running hot when the
season ends, and the team is out the playoffs?
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying
that WILL happen, and I certainly hope it doesn’t. At the same time,
fans need to be realistic. The Cubs (unfortunately) are better than
they were last season, essentially shoo-ins for the division title.
The Phillies too are stronger, and with the offseason moves made by
the Mets, the NL East will likely provide the Wild Card. The Brewers
certainly have the talent to compete, but they also have two huge concerns
that could make or break their season.
Concern #1: Pitching, Pitching,
& More Pitching
I don’t care who you are and what
your payroll is, NO team–Yankees, Red Sox, Royals, or Pirates–can
overcome losing TWO aces. The short but sweet time CC Sabathia
spent as a Brewer is truly legendary, if not one of the most dominating
half-seasons a pitcher has ever had. I consider myself fortunate to
have witnessed a majority of his starts in person, including the locally
infamous “one hit no-hitter” in Pittsburgh. He went above
and beyond when, in the home stretch of the season, he consistently
pitched on three days rest…voluntarily. Yip, CC was so good that a lot of people
seemed to forget about that other pitcher the Brewers had. I mean, all
Ben Sheets did was start for the NL in last year’s All-Star Game…Sheets,
not CC, is the Brewers’ biggest loss (OK, maybe not physically…).
When healthy, Sheets is as good as they come. I always felt he didn’t
get the credit or attention he deserved because he pitched for a lot
of lousy Brewers squads that couldn’t get him wins. Since making his
Brewers debut in 2001, Sheets garnered a record of 86-83 despite an
ERA of 3.72. He owns the team strikeout record, and had 11 games with
10+ K, including a staggering 18 K game against the Braves in 2004.
That season, he had an ERA of 2.70, 264 K, and a record of 12-14 thanks
to a lack of run support. Sheets never demanded a trade, never called
out his teammates, and willingly gave up his job as ace when the Brewers
got Sabathia. That’s a lot to be missed, on and off the field.
Losing a tandem like CC and Sheets
would send most front offices into widespread panic (as they should!).
How does Brewers administration respond? By doing absolutely nothing,
all the while assuring fans that things will be fine! (OK, to be fair,
they did sign Braden Looper…)They are leaving the
rotation to system products Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra. Gallardo
is a future star with Sheets-like stuff who suffered a gruesome season-ending
knee injury last April. Parra is the talented, crafty lefty who’s time
in the majors has been inconsistent to say the least. Both have endless
potential, but essentially no experience. Combined, they have 52 starts
and 294 K–30 more than Sheets alone recorded in 2004. The pressure
young pitchers face first breaking into the majors has to be heavy as
it is, and on top of that, the Brewers are expecting them to replace
CC and Sheets and carry the rotation? Yikes! In time, they will
be a fantastic 1-2 punch. Unfortunately, unless one has a debut season
like Lincecum, that time is probably not now. The rest of the rotation
consists of Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, and Looper/TBA. Hmm.
New manager Ken Macha recently confirmed
that because of his youth, Gallardo will not be the opening day starter
against the Giants, instead taking the #2 slot. He cites that he doesn’t
want Gallardo to have to consistently face the opponents’ #1 starters.
This would make sense if the Brewers had another viable option. Instead,
the Opening Day matchup will feature defending NL Cy Young winner Tim
Lincecum facing off against…Jeff Suppan. Suppan will continue to serve
as the #1 starter until at least the All-Star break, when Macha may
let Gallardo take over. I’m not sure what it says about your team
when Jeff Suppan is the #1 starter, but it can’t be good! Yes, Gallardo
is young and needs some seasoning, but at least at the moment, his talent
alone makes him the best #1 option. Perhaps this wouldn’t be the case
if the front office had attempted to do something to address this issue.
Now that I think about it, the way
the Brewers front office handled the loss of Sabathia and Sheets is
eerily reminescent of a memorable scene from the timeless Hollywood
classic, “Monty Python & the Holy Grail”. While trying
to pass through the forest, King Arthur encounters the Black Knight.
A dual ensues, and Arthur cuts off the Black Knight’s arms. The Black
Knight’s response? “IT’S JUST A FLESH WOUND!” Now, to his
credit, the Black Knight continued to fight, but in the end he lost
his legs as well. Still believing he was invincible, Arthur pointed
out he was really a loony. Losing two aces? More than a flesh wound.
Not doing anything about it? Loony!
Concern #2: An Inconsistent
Offense
Lack of a consistent offense is a
problem that has plagued the Brewers for years. Certainly, a large part
of the problem is that over the last few seasons, several players have
had low averages (.250 or lower) and high strikeouts. Since the 2007
season, the Brewers offense has relied mainly on the production of four
everyday starters: Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, and Prince Fielder.
Over that span, all have averages of at least .280, and all have rightfully
been named an All-Star. One problem is that all they never seem to be
clicking at the same time, and all are prone to major slumps. The bigger
problem is that when they are slumping, no one else seems to be able
to make up for the loss. Last season, the team’s batting average was
.253, 25th out of 30 in MLB. Not good. Of this, Braun, Hart, Hardy,
and Fielder hit .278. The rest of the team? An anemic .234. Also not
good. This team cannot be carried on the backs of four players. Everyone
needs to contribute.
It seems that everyone approaches
the plate trying to swing for the fences. The result? Bad plate discipline,
few walks, and lots of Ks. The players seem to recognize this, and improving
plate discipline was a priority in Spring Training. Macha is hoping
to play more “small ball” this season. Traditionally, this
is a foreign concept to the power swinging Brewers organization, but
I think it is a very important transition to make. They need to recognize
that with a runner on base, they don’t have to hit the 420′ homer. Take
the walk. Hit a single to bring the runner in. Run the bases aggressively,
but smartly. It will be interesting to see how well this team can adapt
to this new sort of game. If the pitching leads to a 4 run deficit,
will the offense regress to the old mentality, panicking and trying
to hit a 5 run home run each time up? The potential to score 7+ runs
a game is there, and this season, they’ll have to work together to make
sure they come close to that.
I’ll never forget being at last season’s
finale, watching the Marlins recording the last out on Miller Park’s
videoboard, giving the Mets a loss and the Brewers the Wild Card. The
full stadium erupted in elation, blue and gold confetti raining down,
the team going crazy on the field. I hugged my friends and cried (yeah,
I’m a girl). Going to the playoff games provided memories that will
last a lifetime. Seeing the Brewers in the postseason for myself–I
was barely 2 the last time–was a dream come true. Hopefully, it won’t
be a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. Whether or not its relived this
season is unlikely, but not impossible. The 2009 Brewers could repeat
as Wild Card champ, provided they play up to they’re potential. Besides,
Brewers fans, stay positive! The Mets can certainly choke again.
A REAL LACKEY; NO JBAY IN THE BACK BAY AND AIG PRICED TIX
LA Angels star pitcher John Lackey’s contract expires after this year’s $10 million option was exercised by the club. He will be seeking a contract in excess of the 5 year $82 million contract YankOne will be paying AJ Burnett. Lackey feels he is better than Burnett and the career numbers support that claim. Now 31, Lackey is the cornerstone of a solid Angels’ rotation. The club has a history of letting veteran stars leave most recently Francisco Rodriguez, Garret Anderson and Jon Garland. If that holds true, fans can bid Vlad Guerrero, Chone Figgans and Robb Quinlan adieu after the season.
The club also feels that the farm system has some pitchers who will be ready to contribute next year, most notably Nick Adenhart, who may break camp this year, Anthony Ortega and Jordan Walden.
Meanwhile, over in Beantown, word is out that the Red Sox may be preparing to make Jason Bay’s first chance at free agency a little difficult. Sources cite the club’s concern that the slowing economy may reflect on this season’s revenues and restrict what dollars would be available to keep Bay, a Class A outfielder who should be in high demand regardless. If true, this is quite the ruse.
The rabid Red Sox Nation sells out Fenway for the whole season at seat prices only the ballplayers themselves can afford. Could it be that the club might finally be reaching its threshold of spendibility in its never ending quest to keep up with the Yankees?
Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Dice-K, Mike Lowell, and JD Drew are all recent expensive acquisitions, Add to that the cost of keeping Big Papi, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkalis and Bay may be the odd person out.
The Angels are also supposedly using the economy as an excuse. Right. Two months ago they had $160 million on the table for Mark Teixeria and now they don’t have half that for Lackey?
Using the economy as a reason not to sign free agents is like OPEC keeping the oil supply low, it doesn’t matter because the money still comes in. Unless sponsors and advertisers start pulling back (a real possibility), the clubs will do fine.
Speaking of the economy, word is out that the top price for a single game seat at new Yankee Stadium will be over $2,000! I don’t know how many people would pony up two large for a game under normal circumstances. A prime target, the former Wall St bigwigs driving cabs and delivering pizzas are no longer interested. There’s always AIG.
“Hey honey how about a Yankees game with the kids. As a special treat, let’s sit in the primo seats. Let’s see 4 tix at $2,000. We’ll need to get money from the retirement fund to pay for it but come on it’s worth it”
IF THE SEASON OPENED TODAY….
These are the 25 players I would break camp with:
Catchers
Jason Kendall #18 r/r 34
Mike Rivera #11 r/r 32
Comment: Angel Salome is ready but would not play regularly enough with Kendall demanding most of the games. So he is better off going to AAA and playing every day.
Infielders
Craig Counsell #30 l/r 38
Prince Fielder #28 l/r 24
Bill Hall #2 r/r 29
JJ Hardy #7 r/r 26
Mike Lamb #20 l/r 33
Casey McGehee #52 r/r 26
Rickie Weeks #23 r/r 26
Comment: Thought that Alcides Escobar would make the club but he is struggling mightily at the plate and it looks like he will need to find his bat at AAA.
McGehee, a FA pickup from the Cubs is having a super spring and is versatile enough to play 3 positions -of/1b/3b. Lamb is a stopgap until Mat Gamel is ready. Hall and Counsell are good utility players who can also play multiple positions. Will this be Weeks’ last chance?
Outfielders
Ryan Braun #8 r/r 25
Mike Cameron #25 r/r 36
Corey Hart #1 r/r 27
Brad Nelson #27 l/r 26
Comment: Nelson makes the club as the reserve outfielder over Chris Duffy for one primary reason – he can backup at 1b. Besides he came through the system with Hart and Hardy and deserves his chance. Hall, assuming he will be ready on opening day, can also play of if needed.
Pitchers
Starters
David Bush #31 r 29
Yovani Gallardo #49 r 23
Braden Looper #41 r 34
Manny Parra #26 l 26
Jeff Suppan #37 r 34
Comment: With all of the off days in April, Looper will probably break camp while he continues to rehab his pulled muscle. Bush has looked solid this spring while Suppan, with an ERA over 7, looks terrible. But GM Doug Melvin will not release him because the Brewers do not eat salaries and Suppan will make over $12 million this year. This is the area of the squad that will make or break this season. Making Gallardo the ace at age 23 is putting much pressure on him. But he has the same winning makeup as Hamels, Linceum and David Price.
Bullpen
Todd Coffey #60 r 28
Tim Dillard #48 r 25
Seth McClung #73 r 28
David Riske #54 r 34
Mitch Stetter #57 l 28
Carlos Villanueva #12 r 25
Closer
Trevor Hoffman #51 r 41
Comment: Despite GM Doug Melvin bringing in a plethora of pitchers from other clubs to compete for spots, it appears that the only new face in the bullpen will be the all-time saves leader. Hoffman has not given up a run this spring. Here’s hoping that he has one more good year in his arm. McClung has been getting lit up and is vulnerable if another pitcher who can both spot start and relieve steps up. Riske, recovering from an injury is also shaky but his experience will probably be enough to keep his spot. Dillard and Coffey have both looked good this spring and Stetter will take over Brian Shouse’s role for a lot less money. Villanueva will be groomed to eventually take over the closer’s role.
Will this team have enough to make the playoffs again? The starting pitching needs to be strong all year and the offense needs to do more than hit homers and strike out. I’m not confident for two reasons: The NL Central is the toughest division and,on paper, the Mets look better. But we know what has happened the past two years.
Even though I’m absorbed in college basketball right now, I can’t wait for the season to start.
TOP 10 ROOKIES TO WATCH THIS YEAR
With opening day less than a month away, let’s take a look at 10 Rookies who will most likely make an impact at some point this year:
1. David Price p Tampa Bay
The 23 year old Price proved his mettle during last year’s playoffs coming in and blowing away hitters like he’d been in the majors for 10 years. This year he moves into the rotation and will quickly pass James Shields and Scott Kazmir to become the ace. The Rays have a young rotation similar to the Twins and are the envy of all AL East rivals. Yes even the Red Sox and Yankees would probably love to have two or three of them.
2. Matt Wieters c Baltimore
Most scouts say the time is now for switch-hitting Wieters. The Orioles are anxiously cautious about putting too much pressure on him. Only 22, he has star written all over him. After an All-America career at Georgia Tech, Wieters, who wasn’t drafted out of high school, tore apart two minor leagues last year, hitting .350 with 27 HR and 91 RBI.
Gregg Zaun will caddy for him until the club thinks he ready to take over (probably by May).
3. James McDonald p Los Angeles Dodgers
McDonald, 23, displayed a hint of what he can do late last year when he pitched six innings of scoreless ball followed up by an impressive showing in the playoffs.
He’ll be part of a revamped Dodger rotation this year joining another youngster, Clayton Kershaw.
4. Cameron Maybin of Florida Marlins
A key part of last year’s Dontrell Willis, Miguel Cabrera trade, Maybin will most likely be the Marlins starting center fielder. He’ll turn 22 next month and scouts rave about his skills. Says Baseball America: “Maybin has 5-tool ability. His quick hands give him lightning bat speed which combined with his raw strength should allow him to hit for plus power to go with his plus plus speed.”
5. Pablo Sandoval 3b San Francisco Giants
Originally signed as a catcher, Sandoval, 22, has enough versatility and talent that the Giants will make him their opening third baseman. He proved he can hit major league pitching by hitting .345 in 41 games last year. The Giants are so positive of his ability,that they are planning on having him hit in the critical third position in the lineup.
6. Travis Snyder of Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are hoping he has an eye popping spring so they can carry him on their opening day roster. Snyder just turned 21 but the club feels he can handle major league pitching. He hit .301 in 24 late season games for the Blue Jays.
Right now Adam Lind is penciled in for LF, but Snyder will get his chance if Lind doesn’t produce.
7. Alcides Escobar ss Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have backed away from making an obvious move, switching JJ Hardy to second or third and giving the ss slot to Escobar. He possesses the best range in the organization but still must prove he can hit major league pitching. The Brewers say they are set at second and third for now, but Rickey Weeks is running out of time to be the player the club thought he was when they made him a first round draft pick in 2003. Meanwhile, Mike Lamb is a stopgap at third. Moving Hardy and starting Escobar at short is only a matter of time.
8. Colby Rasmus of St Louis Cardinals
I thought Rasmus ,23, was ready last year but the Cards decided to let him get some more experience. He moved up three notches last year finishing at AAA Memphis.
According to Baseball America: “The Cardinals will make room for Rasmus the minute he shows he’s ready.”, which will probably necessitate a trade since Ship Schumaker, Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwig are pretty entrenched in the of.
9. Dexter Fowler of Colorado Rockies
Fowler turns 23 this week and there is an outfield slot waiting for him. If he has a good spring, expect to see him at the top of the lineup in cf. He hit .335 at Class AA in 2008 and possesses exceptional speed and range with an ability to drive the ball.
Even though the Rockies lost two everyday outfielders from last year (Matt Holliday and Willy Tavares) they seem set with Seth Smith in lf and Ryan Spilborghs in cf. Neither has played everyday in the majors, so a slow start could open the door for Fowler.
10 . Jeff Larish 1b/3b Detroit Tigers
Originally a first baseman, Larish, 26, will move to third since there is no way he’ll unseat Miguel Cabrera at first. In 42 games last year he hit .262 for the Tigers who like his versatility. While he may not be on the opening day roster, if Brandon Inge gets off to another terrible start, Larish will get his chance.
5 More to Watch…
Brett Anderson p Oakland Athletics
Trevor Cahill p Oakland Athletics
Neftali Feliz p Texas Rangers
Tommy Hanson p Atlanta Braves
Matt LaPorta of Cleveland Indians
Kenn Olson
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