WHAT HAVE I CREATED?

Hi! Kenn's baseball-loving daughter here, taking a much-needed break from thesis writing and job searching to write my latest entry. My previous blogs have revolved around my #2 team, the Yankees. Time for team #1 to take the spotlight! 

Despite the fresh snow, it supposedly is early spring in Wisconsin, and for the first time in ages the talk of the local sports world is about the upcoming Brewers season--NOT which prospects the Packers should go after in next month's draft. (A refreshing change for this baseball-crazy gal living a football-obsessed state!) After the first postseason trip in 26 years, the excitement in Milwaukee is palpable. Fans have high expectations for this team, and tickets are selling at an unbelievable pace. My question is, when this team isn't performing the way they expected them to, will they still fill the seats? Will Brewers Fever still be running hot when the season ends, and the team is out the playoffs? 

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that WILL happen, and I certainly hope it doesn't. At the same time, fans need to be realistic. The Cubs (unfortunately) are better than they were last season, essentially shoo-ins for the division title. The Phillies too are stronger, and with the offseason moves made by the Mets, the NL East will likely provide the Wild Card. The Brewers certainly have the talent to compete, but they also have two huge concerns that could make or break their season. 

Concern #1: Pitching, Pitching, & More Pitching 

I don't care who you are and what your payroll is, NO team--Yankees, Red Sox, Royals, or Pirates--can overcome losing TWO aces.  The short but sweet time CC Sabathia spent as a Brewer is truly legendary, if not one of the most dominating half-seasons a pitcher has ever had. I consider myself fortunate to have witnessed a majority of his starts in person, including the locally infamous "one hit no-hitter" in Pittsburgh. He went above and beyond when, in the home stretch of the season, he consistently pitched on three days rest...voluntarily. Yip, CC was so good that a lot of people seemed to forget about that other pitcher the Brewers had. I mean, all Ben Sheets did was start for the NL in last year's All-Star Game...Sheets, not CC, is the Brewers' biggest loss (OK, maybe not physically...). When healthy, Sheets is as good as they come. I always felt he didn't get the credit or attention he deserved because he pitched for a lot of lousy Brewers squads that couldn't get him wins. Since making his Brewers debut in 2001, Sheets garnered a record of 86-83 despite an ERA of 3.72. He owns the team strikeout record, and had 11 games with 10+ K, including a staggering 18 K game against the Braves in 2004. That season, he had an ERA of 2.70, 264 K, and a record of 12-14 thanks to a lack of run support. Sheets never demanded a trade, never called out his teammates, and willingly gave up his job as ace when the Brewers got Sabathia. That's a lot to be missed, on and off the field. 

Losing a tandem like CC and Sheets would send most front offices into widespread panic (as they should!). How does Brewers administration respond? By doing absolutely nothing, all the while assuring fans that things will be fine! (OK, to be fair, they did sign Braden Looper...)They are leaving the rotation to system products Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra. Gallardo is a future star with Sheets-like stuff who suffered a gruesome season-ending knee injury last April. Parra is the talented, crafty lefty who's time in the majors has been inconsistent to say the least. Both have endless potential, but essentially no experience. Combined, they have 52 starts and 294 K--30 more than Sheets alone recorded in 2004. The pressure young pitchers face first breaking into the majors has to be heavy as it is, and on top of that, the Brewers are expecting them to replace CC and Sheets and carry the rotation? Yikes!  In time, they will be a fantastic 1-2 punch. Unfortunately, unless one has a debut season like Lincecum, that time is probably not now. The rest of the rotation consists of Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, and Looper/TBA. Hmm.   

New manager Ken Macha recently confirmed that because of his youth, Gallardo will not be the opening day starter against the Giants, instead taking the #2 slot. He cites that he doesn't want Gallardo to have to consistently face the opponents' #1 starters. This would make sense if the Brewers had another viable option. Instead, the Opening Day matchup will feature defending NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum facing off against...Jeff Suppan. Suppan will continue to serve as the #1 starter until at least the All-Star break, when Macha may let Gallardo take over.  I'm not sure what it says about your team when Jeff Suppan is the #1 starter, but it can't be good! Yes, Gallardo is young and needs some seasoning, but at least at the moment, his talent alone makes him the best #1 option. Perhaps this wouldn't be the case if the front office had attempted to do something to address this issue.  

Now that I think about it, the way the Brewers front office handled the loss of Sabathia and Sheets is eerily reminescent of a memorable scene from the timeless Hollywood classic, "Monty Python & the Holy Grail". While trying to pass through the forest, King Arthur encounters the Black Knight. A dual ensues, and Arthur cuts off the Black Knight's arms. The Black Knight's response? "IT'S JUST A FLESH WOUND!" Now, to his credit, the Black Knight continued to fight, but in the end he lost his legs as well. Still believing he was invincible, Arthur pointed out he was really a loony. Losing two aces? More than a flesh wound. Not doing anything about it? Loony! 
 

Concern #2: An Inconsistent Offense 

Lack of a consistent offense is a problem that has plagued the Brewers for years. Certainly, a large part of the problem is that over the last few seasons, several players have had low averages (.250 or lower) and high strikeouts. Since the 2007 season, the Brewers offense has relied mainly on the production of four everyday starters: Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, and Prince Fielder. Over that span, all have averages of at least .280, and all have rightfully been named an All-Star. One problem is that all they never seem to be clicking at the same time, and all are prone to major slumps. The bigger problem is that when they are slumping, no one else seems to be able to make up for the loss. Last season, the team's batting average was .253, 25th out of 30 in MLB. Not good. Of this, Braun, Hart, Hardy, and Fielder hit .278. The rest of the team? An anemic .234. Also not good. This team cannot be carried on the backs of four players. Everyone needs to contribute.  

It seems that everyone approaches the plate trying to swing for the fences. The result? Bad plate discipline, few walks, and lots of Ks. The players seem to recognize this, and improving plate discipline was a priority in Spring Training. Macha is hoping to play more "small ball" this season. Traditionally, this is a foreign concept to the power swinging Brewers organization, but I think it is a very important transition to make. They need to recognize that with a runner on base, they don't have to hit the 420' homer. Take the walk. Hit a single to bring the runner in. Run the bases aggressively, but smartly. It will be interesting to see how well this team can adapt to this new sort of game. If the pitching leads to a 4 run deficit, will the offense regress to the old mentality, panicking and trying to hit a 5 run home run each time up? The potential to score 7+ runs a game is there, and this season, they'll have to work together to make sure they come close to that.